Playing Your Cards Right

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I’ve been picking up a new obsession lately.

No, it’s not a new token or NFT…

It’s poker.

If you don’t know, I’m the Head of Content at Decentral Games. One of our main games is ICE Poker: a Metaverse poker game.

Up until a couple of weeks ago, I was a complete noob.

I knew the basic rules but didn’t have much of a strategy. I’d join beta testing sessions with the team and get my ass handed to me every time. And now I help run our weekly live streams where I have to play in front of a hundred viewers.

It’s time for ya boy to step up his game.

If you don’t know how to play, here’s a basic explanation: have the best hand combination or try to bluff others that you have the best hand.

Unlike what you see in movies, poker isn’t just about bluffing and luck. There’s hella strategy, patience, psychology, and emotional control involved.

As I learn more about the game, I realize the skills and mindset you need to do well in poker are identical to investing.

Let me explain.

Poker is a game of probabilities.

Your goal is to bet big on hands that you think you have a good chance of winning and avoid hands that have a low chance. Unlike other gambling games, you can strategize against your opponents and increase your chances of winning.

But an important thing to remember is that no matter if you make all the right moves or play your strategy perfectly—sometimes luck just doesn't swing your way.

For example: You have a strong hand and you calculate that you have a 75% chance of winning. While those are good chances, if you go all-in then you still have a 25% chance of losing it all.

This is also true in investing, and it's why diversifying your portfolio is key.

No matter how much research you do.

No matter how strong the fundamentals are.

No matter how smart some Twitter guru sounds.

There’s no 100% guarantee in investing.

There are many factors out of your control. An unexpected event, like a pandemic or a market crash, could happen and your investment evaporates with it.

Last week, it was reported that Multichain’s CEO was arrested and they experienced a $125 million exploit. This affected more than the Multichain team—it rippled through the Fantom network and forced other projects to shut down.

As tempting as an investment seems, you need to diversify so you don’t get wiped out from one bad investment.

Instead of recklessly gambling your portfolio, it’s important to manage your money and take calculated risks. Having a foundation of cash and low-risk investments to fall back on lets you survive bad luck, weather the ups and downs of the market, stay in the game, and take advantage of opportunities.

Poker and investing are all about playing the long game. Aside from managing your money, you also need to manage your patience and emotions.

In poker, you might go through long stretches where you're dealt nothing but bad hands. It can be tempting to play a weak hand because you want to get in on the action. But being impatient and trying to force a good hand can lead to costly mistakes.

Patience pays. And most of the time, the best play is to fold.

Investing isn't much different.

You can't predict market movements, but you can decide how much risk you're willing to take.

You see people on your timeline hitting it big and getting rich overnight. FOMO starts to kick in and you’re tempted to get in on the action too. But chasing every hot token or NFT can lead to disaster.

It’s hard to feel like you’re missing out, but there’s always another stock, another token, another new thing around the corner.

Most of the time, the best move is to not make a move and wait for a clear opportunity.

Peace,

Fifty Sat

P.S.

Do any of you like to play? Reply to this email or DM me and let me know.

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